Africa’s key commodity index fell 1.4% in the first half of 2025 despite a historic gold rally, according to the Afreximbank African Commodity Index.
The decline masked significant volatility, with the index peaking at 207.2 in January before sinking to 185.6 in May and closing at 191.1. A 25% gold surge the metal’s strongest H1 performance in 50 years partially offset steep drops in oil and agricultural prices.
Precious metals soared 25%, driven by geopolitical tensions and central bank buying, lifting that sub-index from 244.6 to 305.7. Conversely, energy commodities slid over 6% amid global oil oversupply, while agriculture posted the steepest decline (-12.5%) due to bumper harvests and weak demand. Cocoa and coffee faced particular pressure despite Africa supplying 75% of global cocoa; the continent captures under 10% of its final value.
“The volatility reinforces structural dependence on raw exports,” the report stated, noting Africa imports 80% of refined petroleum despite its reserves. Base metals provided modest relief, with copper rising on EV demand, though African output was hampered by power shortages.
Afreximbank warned persistent commodity reliance leaves economies vulnerable to price shocks and climate disruptions. It urged accelerated industrialization, AfCFTA trade integration, and local refining to capture more value. The outlook remains mixed: copper and zinc are bullish, gold range-bound, while cocoa and palm oil face bearish pressure. Without value-chain development, the bank concluded, Africa will remain exposed to external volatility.
Source: newsghana.com.gh
