Artificial intelligence infrastructure investment will sustain global economic growth through 2026, potentially preventing recession despite slower job creation and consumer spending, according to deVere Group Chief Executive Officer Nigel Green.
The financial advisory firm’s analysis suggests AI-driven capital expenditure has become sufficiently large to offset traditional economic weaknesses, with recent United States data showing technology investment prevented economic contraction earlier this year.
Semiconductor manufacturers will spend a record $400 billion on computer chip-making equipment in 2025-2027, according to global industry association SEMI, with China, South Korea and Taiwan leading expenditure as demand for artificial intelligence processing capabilities accelerates worldwide.
South Korea saw information and communications technology exports in August 2025 reach a record high, resulting in a trade surplus of $10.34 billion, demonstrating how AI infrastructure demand drives international trade flows across Asian manufacturing economies.
Green emphasizes the capital-intensive nature of AI projects requires fewer workers compared to traditional industrial investment while generating substantial economic multiplier effects. Companies like Nvidia employ approximately 36,000 people yet create trillions in market value and drive semiconductor trade across Asia, Europe and North America.
Industry analysts project AI infrastructure spending will increase more than 30 percent annually, fueling record chip exports from Taiwan and unprecedented order volumes for Netherlands-based ASML, the world’s leading semiconductor equipment manufacturer.
Samsung’s $14.3 billion New Research & Development Center in Yongin, operational mid-2025, focuses exclusively on next-generation AI semiconductors, illustrating the scale of corporate investment in artificial intelligence processing capabilities.
The economic impact extends beyond technology sectors into energy markets, as data center electricity consumption in the United States is forecast to double by 2030, prompting utilities to expand electrical grids and renewable energy capacity to meet growing demand.
Green identifies three factors sustaining AI investment momentum: competition among United States technology companies for computing supremacy, government incentives from Washington to Tokyo supporting domestic production capabilities, and increasing demand for machine learning and generative AI applications.
Government policy initiatives amplify private sector investment through targeted subsidies and regulatory support. The Inflation Reduction Act and CHIPS Act allocated billions for semiconductor manufacturing capacity and energy infrastructure development, while the European Union committed record funding for advanced fabrication facilities.
Japan and South Korea offer tax incentives and expedited permitting processes to secure competitive positions in AI supply chains, creating international competition for technological advancement that ensures continued capital allocation toward artificial intelligence development.
However, economic forecasts remain mixed across major institutions. The Conference Board expects significant slowdown in economic growth in 2025 compared to 2024, with real GDP growing at 1.6 percent this year and persistent tariff effects potentially leading to further deceleration in 2026.
J.P. Morgan sees a 40% probability that the U.S./global economy will enter a recession by the end of 2025, suggesting considerable downside risks despite technology sector strength.
Green acknowledges energy supply constraints and regulatory oversight could eventually moderate AI investment pace, but maintains profitability potential will sustain expansion through 2026 as capital continues pursuing extraordinary returns available in artificial intelligence markets.
The investment wave creates multi-sector growth effects encompassing shipping, logistics, rare earth mining, and construction materials as supporting industries benefit from AI infrastructure buildout requirements.
Growth in Europe and Central Asia is projected to slow to 2.4 percent in 2025 before edging up to 2.6 percent in 2026-27, remaining below its 2010-19 average, according to World Bank projections that highlight regional economic challenges.
Green’s analysis suggests traditional recession indicators may prove inadequate for measuring economic health when transformative technology investment drives growth patterns different from historical cycles.
The deVere Group assessment positions AI spending as a structural economic shift rather than cyclical technology investment, arguing that artificial intelligence development represents fundamental changes in how economies generate growth and markets respond to innovation.
For investors, Green recommends recognizing AI as the primary global growth driver influencing currency valuations, equity markets, commodity prices, and bond yields throughout 2026 rather than treating artificial intelligence as temporary investment theme.
The prediction contrasts with broader economic uncertainty as trade tensions, geopolitical conflicts, and monetary policy adjustments create headwinds that AI investment may need to overcome to sustain global economic expansion through the forecast period.
Source: newsghana.com.gh
