Nigeria’s economic story over the past decade reads like a cautionary tale that every African nation should study carefully. Between 2014 and 2024, the country’s GDP per capita crashed by 66%, dragging over 65 million people into poverty according to a damning new report by Quartus Economics.
That’s not a typo. Two-thirds of Nigeria’s per capita economic output simply vanished over ten years, wiping out a generation’s worth of progress and leaving Africa’s most populous nation poorer than it was decades ago.
The report, titled “Forty Years of Structural Adjustment: Is Africa’s Eagle Stuck or Soaring Back to Life?” examined Nigeria’s economic trajectory since the World Bank and IMF imposed structural adjustment programs in 1986. What it found should worry policymakers across West Africa, including Ghana, which faces similar challenges with currency stability and economic diversification.
Quartus noted that while Nigeria’s total GDP grew from $87.5 billion in 1990 to $252 billion in 2024, that headline figure masks a catastrophic failure. The naira lost 99.7% of its value during the same period, turning what looked like growth on paper into devastating impoverishment for ordinary Nigerians.
Here’s the brutal reality: Nigeria’s GDP per capita fell from around $3,200 in 2014 to just $835 in 2025 according to IMF data. For comparison, Ghana’s GDP per capita stands at $2,189 in 2025, Kenya’s at $2,187, and South Africa’s at $6,517. Nigeria, with all its oil wealth and economic potential, now ranks among Africa’s poorest nations on a per capita basis.
What happened? The report identifies policy inconsistencies and weak implementation as core problems. Nigeria’s early liberalization, privatization, and banking reforms in the 1990s actually boosted private investment and manufacturing. But then policy reversals and governance failures eroded those gains, creating what Quartus calls “a recurring cycle of mixed results and missed opportunities.”
Between 2014 and 2023, Nigeria experienced what the report terms its worst growth slowdown in a generation. Oil prices collapsed, population pressure intensified, and restrictive fiscal and monetary policies strangled economic activity. Inflation soared above 30%, capital fled the country, and economic stagnation became the new normal.
The naira’s depreciation tells the story most clearly. Between September 2023 and September 2024 alone, the naira crashed 71%, dropping from N755 per dollar to N1,601. When you convert Nigeria’s domestic economic output into dollars at those exchange rates, per capita figures collapse even if local production stays constant.
For Ghanaian readers, this should sound uncomfortably familiar. Ghana’s own currency challenges, debt crisis, and IMF program share troubling similarities with Nigeria’s trajectory. The difference is scale; Nigeria’s economy is roughly six times larger, which means its failures affect far more people and have regional implications.
President Bola Tinubu’s administration implemented controversial reforms in 2023 and 2024, removing fuel and foreign exchange subsidies that had distorted the economy for years. Quartus praised these as “decisive measures” that began correcting structural problems, despite initially worsening inflation and hardship.
By late 2024, some positive signs emerged. GDP growth rebounded to nearly 4%, manufacturing and mining showed renewed strength, and economic expansion finally outpaced population growth for the first time in years. By October 2025, foreign reserves increased to $42 billion, and inflation started easing slightly.
But Quartus warns these improvements come after devastating damage. The scars of Nigeria’s “lost decade” linger painfully. Per capita income remains far below pre-crisis levels. The export base stays dominated by oil with minimal diversification. And governance systems continue exhibiting the inefficiencies that caused problems in the first place.
The 65 million people pushed into poverty represent real families struggling with food insecurity, lack of healthcare access, and diminished opportunities. Nigeria’s multidimensional poverty rate now stands at 63%, with income poverty at 40%. That’s catastrophic for a country that aspires to continental leadership.
What lessons does this hold for Ghana and other West African nations? First, currency stability matters desperately. Nigeria’s 99.7% naira depreciation destroyed wealth and impoverished millions regardless of what GDP growth numbers suggested. Ghana’s recent cedi struggles, while less severe, follow a similar dangerous pattern.
Second, policy consistency and strong implementation trump ambitious reform announcements. Nigeria launched multiple reform programs over decades but kept reversing course or implementing them weakly. That inconsistency prevented sustainable progress and left the economy vulnerable to external shocks.
Third, diversification beyond commodity exports isn’t optional; it’s existential. Nigeria’s overwhelming dependence on oil revenues left it exposed when prices collapsed. Ghana faces similar risks with its reliance on gold, cocoa, and oil. Building robust manufacturing and service sectors takes decades but provides essential economic resilience.
Fourth, population growth without corresponding productivity increases creates disasters. Nigeria’s population exploded while economic output per person collapsed, creating mass unemployment and poverty. Managing demographic transitions requires foresight and sustained investment in education, healthcare, and job creation.
Quartus concluded that Nigeria, “the African eagle,” is currently “unstuck, yet it has not started to soar.” The recovery is real but fragile, dependent on discipline, continuity, and collective commitment to reform. That’s diplomatic language for saying Nigeria could still blow this opportunity if it reverts to old habits.
For lasting transformation, Nigeria must move beyond short-term stabilization toward deep structural change. That means prioritizing productivity improvements, encouraging innovation, and establishing responsible governance that doesn’t reverse course every few years. It means building institutions that outlast individual leaders and policy regimes.
The report notes that Nigeria’s export base and governance systems exhibit deep inefficiencies that reforms haven’t yet addressed. Corruption, bureaucratic obstacles, infrastructure deficits, and inconsistent regulatory frameworks continue hampering business activity and discouraging investment.
Ghana should watch Nigeria’s experience closely, not with schadenfreude but with concern and determination to avoid similar mistakes. The factors that impoverished 65 million Nigerians operate across West Africa. Currency mismanagement, policy inconsistency, commodity dependence, weak institutions, and governance failures threaten economic progress everywhere in the region.
The economic integration efforts through ECOWAS mean Nigeria’s troubles affect its neighbors. When Africa’s largest economy struggles, regional trade suffers, investment confidence declines, and spillover effects spread across borders. Ghana’s economic health is partly tied to Nigeria’s, whether we acknowledge it or not.
There’s also the migration dimension. Economic collapse in Nigeria has already driven waves of economic migrants seeking opportunities elsewhere. As 65 million people face poverty and diminishing prospects, pressure to migrate intensifies. That affects Ghana and other regional destinations dealing with their own economic challenges.
What’s perhaps most frustrating about Nigeria’s story is the wasted potential. The country has enormous oil reserves, a huge domestic market, talented people, and natural resources that should have driven prosperity. Instead, decades of mismanagement turned advantages into liabilities and condemned millions to poverty that better governance could have prevented.
The Tinubu reforms represent Nigeria’s latest attempt at course correction. Whether they succeed depends on sustained implementation, political will to resist backsliding, and ability to manage short-term pain for long-term gain. History suggests caution; Nigeria has attempted reforms before only to abandon them when political pressures mounted.
For the 65 million Nigerians pushed into poverty over the past decade, economic statistics and reform promises matter far less than daily survival. They need jobs, affordable food, functioning healthcare, and hope that tomorrow might improve on today. Whether Nigeria’s current trajectory delivers that remains uncertain.
Quartus Economics’ report serves as both diagnosis and warning. It documents how policy failures, governance weaknesses, and structural imbalances can devastate even large, resource-rich economies. It shows that population size and natural wealth don’t guarantee prosperity without competent economic management and consistent policy implementation.
Ghana faces its own economic challenges, including high debt levels, currency pressures, and an ongoing IMF program. Learning from Nigeria’s mistakes could help avoid similar catastrophic outcomes. That means prioritizing currency stability, maintaining policy consistency, diversifying the economic base, strengthening institutions, and ensuring governance systems focus on broad-based prosperity rather than elite enrichment.
The question Quartus Economics poses remains urgent: Is Africa’s eagle stuck or soaring back to life? For Nigeria specifically, the answer appears to be “neither yet, but possibly eventually.” The country has stopped free-falling but hasn’t begun rising meaningfully. Whether the current recovery becomes genuine transformation or just another false start will determine the fate of millions.
For West Africa broadly, Nigeria’s experience illustrates the high stakes of economic governance. Get it right, and hundreds of millions can escape poverty and build prosperous lives. Get it wrong, and decades of progress evaporate, pushing vulnerable populations into hardship while undermining regional stability and development prospects.
The 65 million Nigerians who slipped into poverty over the past decade deserve better. So do the hundreds of millions across Africa facing similar vulnerabilities from economic mismanagement. Whether their governments learn from Nigeria’s mistakes or repeat them will shape the continent’s future for generations.
Source: newsghana.com.gh
