The regional reality is being shaped around four parallel arenas: Gaza, Syria and Lebanon, the completion of normalization with Saudi Arabia and its expansion to additional states, and the integration of the entire region into a broad technological – economic corridor. The key is the symphonic management of all arenas together, while offering Iran the incentive of integration or the risk of isolation. Below is a focused breakdown of each issue, with the implications and solutions I propose.
Gaza: Ending the Fighting, Transitional Governance, and Accelerated Reconstruction
Goal: Rapid security stabilization, removing Hamas from governance structures, establishing an alternative governance mechanism acceptable to the Gulf states, Egypt, and Israel, and launching a visible civilian reconstruction plan within months.
How to achieve it:
- International interim governance: A transitional international authority for Gaza with recognized leadership, symbolic Western – Arab backing, an Arab observer force, and a broad civilian mandate. Reports point to such a model under the working name GITA, with leadership options like Tony Blair. The aim is civilian management, reconstruction, order, security, and eventual unification with the Palestinian Authority without population transfer.
- Fast – track reconstruction funded by the Gulf and implemented by Israel: Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE finance, while Israel leads execution and engineering. Begin with 180 day projects: water, solar electricity, community employment, clinics, schools, and Agri – Tech pilots for food production within six months.
- Transparency mechanisms: An international trust fund, real – time budget oversight, supervised local subcontracting, prevention of diversion to terror groups, and linking payments to milestones.
Why it matters: Without civilian stability in Gaza, political and economic tracks in other arenas cannot advance. Gaza’s stability is the entry ticket for northern border arrangements and normalization with Riyadh.
Syria and Lebanon: De – escalation, Gradual Demilitarization, and Gulf – Funded Reconstruction
Goal: A phased security agreement, demilitarization of border areas, weakening militias, and launching comprehensive civilian – economic reconstruction in both states.
How to achieve it:
- Lebanon: A U.S. – European track to dismantle Hezbollah’s firepower in southern Lebanon, establish phased monitoring, and tie it to civilian reconstruction packages, enabling displaced Israeli northern residents to return home. Proposals on Beirut’s table describe demilitarization by year’s end in exchange for Israeli withdrawal from forward positions, alongside broad civil arrangements.
- Syria: A diplomatic de – escalation process with reconstruction in exchange for stability and border quiet, funded by the Gulf, with engineering and technological execution by Israel under international oversight. A model of “reconstruction for stability.”
- Sectarian integration and peace economy: Employment clusters designed by geography and sect (Druze, Christians, Alawites, Circassians, Sunnis, Shiites) to reduce friction. Each cluster includes water, energy, advanced agriculture, and light industry, measured transparently in employment and productivity.
Why it matters: Demilitarization and reconstruction transform the northern border from a friction zone into a development zone. This is a condition for Gulf funding and Saudi rapprochement.
Normalization with Saudi Arabia and Expanding the Circle to Additional States
Goal: An Israel – Saudi normalization agreement as a strategic anchor, followed by expansion to Azerbaijan, Lebanon, and Syria (after arrangements), and potentially Armenia and other states in Asia and North Africa.
How to achieve it:
- The Saudi package: American security guarantees for Riyadh, cooperation in energy and artificial intelligence, and a political track regarding the Palestinian arena acceptable to the kingdom. Riyadh sets clear diplomatic lines regarding Gaza and the Palestinian political path.
- Peripheral states: Azerbaijan as a Caucasian gateway to trade and energy corridors, with expansion to Asia and North Africa through infrastructure projects and economic – security cooperation.
Why it matters: Riyadh is both a financial and political multiplier. Without it, no stable regional architecture can be built.
Abraham Plus: Integrating the Gulf, Asia, and North Africa under IMEC
Goal: Anchoring the peace economy within the India – Middle East – Europe Corridor (IMEC). This is not a slogan but a physical and digital network of ports, railways, electricity, gas, fiber optics, and data infrastructure.
How to achieve it:
- IMEC as backbone: Initially designed for 1.5 million TEU annually with expansion potential. Integrating Ashdod increases Eastern Mediterranean throughput. Surrounding it are electrification, logistics, data centers, and AI projects.
- Regional connectivity: Any country linked to rail and ports joins the club of standards, insurance, and finance. The denser the network, the lower the incentive for conflict and the higher the peace premium.
Iran: Integration Track or Isolation Track
Goal: Present Tehran with a strategic choice. Joining regional arrangements, reducing proxy activity, and curbing nuclear advances would open phased economic relief. Continued disruption will meet financial and technological shutdown via Riyadh, the Gulf, and Europe. The logic is simple: as IMEC and normalization advance, proxy space shrinks.
The Israeli Role: Gulf Funding, Israeli Execution
Goal: Make Israel the contractor of execution and knowledge for the peace economy. Israel contributes engineering, management, water and energy technologies, Agri – Tech, Med – Tech, Edu – Tech, smart logistics, and AI.
How to achieve it:
- Operational mechanism: Israeli consortia with American and Gulf partners, real – time budget oversight, quarterly KPIs, and 6 – 12 month Quick Win project timelines.
- Security safeguards: Contractor vetting, due diligence, and legal anchoring against fund diversion to extremist groups.
- Regional integration: Linking northern projects to export gateways through Israeli ports and to regional energy rings.
Political Implications in Israel
The internal political track must align with normalization goals. Around the West Bank, an upgraded civilian governance model will be required, perceived as legitimate by Riyadh and its allies. This is a condition for advancing the Riyadh deal and preserving the regional window.
Operational Milestones I Propose
Within 90 days:
- Launch a transitional mechanism in Gaza and begin water, electricity, and employment reconstruction.
- Sign a principles document on phased demilitarization in southern Lebanon, tied to reconstruction incentives.
- Form a U.S. – Israel – Saudi coordination team for deal architecture and adjustments.
Within 12 months: - Achieve civilian stability in Gaza with measurable reconstruction packages.
- Begin reconstruction projects in Syria and Lebanon funded by the Gulf and executed by Israel.
- Conclude a normalization agreement with Saudi Arabia and connect initial milestones to IMEC.
Bottom Line
Trump’s regional game rests on four chords playing together: Gaza, the North, Saudi Arabia, and the economic corridor. Iran faces a crossroads. Israel has a decisive role as the execution hub. If we act correctly, we can anchor decades of stability, employment, and growth for the entire region.
Author : Samuel Shay, Entrepreneur and Economic Advisor for the Abraham Accords
Source: newsghana.com.gh
